Analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s near-term outlook, estimating a 70% likelihood that the leading cryptocurrency could reach new all-time highs within the next two weeks. Current market dynamics suggest a favorable environment, with signals indicating that bullish momentum may soon take hold.
According to Bitcoin analyst Axel Adler Jr., the market is currently in a balanced phase, with internal indicators showing the Short-Term Holder (STH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Scores for both 155-day and 365-day cohorts hovering close to zero. This condition signifies that Bitcoin is not experiencing either excessive bullish or bearish pressures. As BTC trades slightly above the realized price for short-term holders, Adler Jr. suggests a potential consolidation period lasting one to two weeks could set the stage for a price surge. “Uptober incoming,” he remarked, referring to seasonal trends that historically favor upward movements in October.
Further supporting this bullish outlook are recent findings from derivatives markets. Bitcoin futures are consistently trading at a premium relative to spot prices, with the seven-day basis remaining higher than the 30-day basis. This configuration is often associated with a favorable market sentiment. However, Adler Jr. did note some signs of late-stage positioning ahead of the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where light trading volumes led to increased cost basis.
Despite these minor warning signs, the general consensus leans toward a positive market structure. “There’s a 70% chance the next two weeks will be characterized by an upward trend or sideways movement,” Adler Jr. explained.
Additionally, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong, with U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording $2.8 billion in net inflows since September 9. This influx of capital has propelled Bitcoin’s price action into the positive zone, signaling strong investor confidence and creating a positive technical backdrop. Traders are preparing for what could be a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s path forward.
Since the beginning of October, Bitcoin has seen an increase of approximately 8.5%, rising from $107,000 to around $117,800 before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. However, this quick ascent has also led to areas of internal liquidity that could prompt a temporary pullback before a continued upward trend. September’s historically bearish tendencies could also contribute to this likelihood.
Notably, Bitcoin’s performance throughout 2025 has defied many expectations, often navigating outside of significant liquidity areas. For instance, during a significant price rally in July, BTC bypassed liquidity levels near $105,000 to surge to new highs after a decisive daily break of structure.
A similar pattern is currently emerging. Should Bitcoin achieve a daily close above $117,500, it would confirm another bullish break of structure and significantly diminish the chances of a retreat below $114,000. This scenario aligns with Adler Jr.’s forecast of possible new highs in the upcoming two weeks.
While a limited opportunity remains for a potential retest of liquidity near $114,000 to $113,000, improving macroeconomic conditions and consistent ETF inflows could lead to earlier buying activity, thereby reducing potential downside risks. The interplay between structural liquidity gaps and bullish momentum is likely to determine whether Bitcoin pauses for a dip or accelerates directly toward the $124,000 mark.
Investors and traders alike are advised to proceed with caution, as fluctuations in the market can occur rapidly. Conducting independent research is essential before making any investment decisions.
