Investment firm William Blair has identified Circle (CRCL) as the pivotal player in the stablecoin market, initiating coverage with an “Outperform” rating and a positive long-term outlook. The analysis underscores Circle’s significant role in advancing the shift from traditional fiat currencies to blockchain-based payment systems, particularly focusing on cross-border business-to-business (B2B) transactions—a sector valued at up to $24 trillion.
At the heart of William Blair’s bullish view is the expectation that stablecoins, spearheaded by Circle’s USDC token, will increasingly supplant fiat currencies in global commercial payments. Circle’s revenue model primarily depends on interest accrued from USDC reserves. As more businesses adopt stablecoins for efficient and cost-effective international money transfers, this revenue stream is projected to expand substantially.
William Blair’s projections indicate that USDC’s market capitalization could nearly double by 2027, approaching $150 billion. In such a scenario, Circle’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) might exceed $1 billion. Margins are also expected to improve as Circle broadens its institutional partnerships beyond its largest current distributor, Coinbase (COIN).
While the current income model leverages Treasury yields on reserves, the firm sees additional growth potential in Circle’s expanding infrastructure aimed at increasing USDC’s commercial use. Key initiatives include the Circle Payments Network (CPN), a smart contract platform designed to integrate banks, blockchains, and fintech entities. Additionally, Circle is developing Arc, a layer-1 blockchain compatible with Ethereum, intended to support the token’s ecosystem growth.
However, William Blair notes that wider adoption of USDC for commercial purposes remains a work in progress. Presently, much of USDC’s activity is concentrated in cryptocurrency trading rather than broader commerce. The timeline for stablecoins becoming a common medium in business payments is therefore uncertain.
The report also highlights some potential headwinds. Reduced interest rates could lower Circle’s income from Treasury yields, yet paradoxically might encourage greater stablecoin adoption by diminishing the opportunity cost of holding stablecoins compared to fiat money.
Regulatory clarity remains a critical factor. While legislative frameworks such as the GENIUS Act have started to establish guidelines for U.S. stablecoin regulation, questions persist regarding yield offerings and token classification that could impact Circle’s operations.
Coinbase, as Circle’s largest distribution network for USDC and a beneficiary of reserve yield, is also featured in the analysis. William Blair views Coinbase as an underestimated strategic partner with promising revenue prospects tied to its involvement in the stablecoin ecosystem.
Despite Circle trading at a premium—approximately 57 times expected EBITDA in 2026—William Blair considers this valuation justified given the company’s strong profit potential and strategic position. The firm suggests that if USDC becomes the dominant currency for cross-border commerce, Circle’s market valuation may increasingly reflect its foundational role.
