Bitcoin (BTC) continues to face challenges, holding steady around the $105,000 mark, while fiscal developments in the United States show a notably stronger trajectory.
The U.S. Treasury recorded a substantial surplus of $198 billion in September 2025, marking the highest monthly surplus ever recorded for that period, according to data reported by CNBC. This fiscal achievement played a key role in reducing the overall budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 to $1.78 trillion, a decrease of approximately $41 billion or 2.2% compared to 2024 figures.
September is traditionally a month with a fiscal surplus, primarily due to elevated tax collections. However, this year’s surplus was bolstered significantly by import duties introduced earlier in April by President Donald Trump. These tariffs generated $30 billion in revenue during September alone, accounting for nearly half of the total expected tariff income for the entire fiscal year. This influx helped counterbalance the growing burden of interest payments on the national debt, which now totals $38 trillion.
Annual interest expenditures on the national debt have surpassed $1.2 trillion, with September’s net interest payments reaching $37 billion. Despite this sizable outlay, interest payments ranked as the fourth-largest federal expense for the month. Social Security led the expenditures at $133 billion, followed by health spending at $94 billion and national defense at $76 billion.
The unexpected strength in tariff-generated revenues indicates ongoing commitment to protectionist policies despite potential market uncertainties. These developments may influence investor behavior by encouraging a move away from higher-risk assets toward traditionally safer options like bonds and gold, similar to market responses observed during the early 2025 “tariff tantrum.”
Despite concerns that escalating trade tensions could pressure inflation rates upward, the Federal Reserve anticipates any such increases to be transient. The central bank is expected to continue a gradual easing of interest rates, presently set between 4.00% and 4.25%. Market data from the CME Fed Watch Tool shows investors pricing in a cumulative 50 basis points reduction in 2025, projecting benchmark rates to fall to a range between 3.50% and 3.75%.
Whether these anticipated rate cuts will provide substantive relief to risk assets including cryptocurrencies remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price plateau highlights the ongoing divergence between financial markets and fiscal policy momentum.
These figures and trends align with information contained in the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Monthly Treasury Statement for September 2025, presenting a detailed breakdown of fiscal receipts and outlays for the month.
