In a vibrant turn of events for the prediction market sector, competition between Kalshi and Polymarket is intensifying, marking what many are calling the dawn of a “golden age” for this burgeoning field. Recent reports indicate that cumulative activity within prediction markets has skyrocketed, signaling heightened engagement reminiscent of the frenzy witnessed during the 2024 presidential election.
September proved to be a particularly lucrative month for both platforms. According to data from DeFiLlama, Polymarket achieved its highest trading volume of the year at an impressive $1.43 billion. Kalshi, matching the surge in interest, recorded its own peak performance with over $3 billion in volume for the same month. This surge follows a steady increase in activity throughout 2025, leading up to notable levels of engagement.
The week concluding on September 29 saw the prediction market industry reach its pinnacle in terms of weekly volumes since the 2024 election, amassing a total of $1.45 billion. This figure, while falling short of the $1.98 billion observed during the election week, nevertheless indicates a solid upward trend in market activities. Notably, Kalshi led in unique transactions, registering approximately 3.4 million weekly trades.
One intriguing aspect emerging from this data is the discrepancy between total volume and unique transactions, which suggests that many trades are of smaller values. In contrast, the election period saw larger bets placed in more liquid markets, hinting at a diversifying user base engaging in prediction markets in varied ways.
The competitive atmosphere is further fueled by timely announcements in the market space. Just recently, Polymarket secured a significant investment of $2 billion from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the organization behind the New York Stock Exchange. This influx of capital is likely to bolster its platform and service offerings, albeit amidst a backdrop of a fierce rivalry.
While Polymarket has been bolstered by its decentralized infrastructure and robust trading environment, Kalshi’s focus remains on centralized, off-chain operations. Despite this operational difference, observers note that both companies are thriving, prompting discussions about the future of prediction markets.
Marcin Kaźmierczak, co-founder of RedStone, expressed the view that the notion of a winner-takes-all scenario in the prediction market domain is exaggerated. “The total addressable market is so large that multiple players can succeed. This isn’t a winner-takes-all space,” he stated, emphasizing the potential for collaboration among competitors. Kazmierczak also highlighted the growing intersection of oracles, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets as a transformative force, suggesting that these markets are evolving from mere speculative platforms into vital sources of reliable information.
Despite the ongoing success, the rivalry has not been without controversy. Kalshi has made headlines recently for allegations involving celebrity endorsements aimed at undermining Polymarket, particularly following a high-profile incident involving Polymarket’s CEO, Shayne Coplan. In light of the past skirmishes, Kalshi is attempting to mend fences with the crypto community by collaborating with prominent crypto influencers such as John Wang, IcoBeast, and 0xUltra, although specific details about these partnerships remain undisclosed.
As both platforms forge ahead in a heated and dynamic market, the future of prediction markets looks increasingly promising, with a landscape ripe for innovation and growth.
