MicroStrategy (MSTR), known as the largest corporate holder of bitcoin and a closely watched proxy for the cryptocurrency market, has experienced a significant market value decline recently, shedding nearly $18 billion as investor enthusiasm waned.
This downturn has coincided with a collapse in the company’s net asset value (mNAV) premium, pushing the stock price below $280. Currently, MicroStrategy’s market capitalization hovers just above the value of the bitcoin assets recorded on its balance sheet, a notable reversal from late 2024 when speculative premiums had propelled the stock well above its bitcoin-related fundamentals.
However, a recent report from Markus Thielen of 10x Research points to potential catalysts that could shift the stock’s trajectory. Once bearish, Thielen has reevaluated MicroStrategy’s outlook, indicating that the stock might present an attractive investment opportunity at current levels.
Key factors highlighted include:
- The collapse of the NAV premium has aligned the stock price more closely with the value of its bitcoin holdings.
- Volatility in the market is increasing, which could create favorable conditions for price movement.
- Anticipation of MicroStrategy’s Q3 earnings report, expected to include approximately $3.6 billion in mark-to-market gains linked to its bitcoin portfolio.
- Renewed speculation about the company’s potential inclusion in the S&P 500 index, with Thielen assigning a 60–70% chance of this occurring in December.
The potential addition of MicroStrategy to the S&P 500 is significant because inclusion in major equity indexes often attracts substantial capital inflows from passive and active funds. Thielen estimates that such a move could generate up to $28 billion in new fund flows, drawing parallels with the rallies observed when companies like Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) were incorporated into the index.
Despite the roughly 40% decline in stock price since July, which has reduced retail interest and sentiment, the forthcoming earnings release may serve as a pivotal moment. The reported mark-to-market gains on bitcoin holdings could reset market expectations and catalyze buying interest.
Thielen commented, “Capitulation always feels like the end — until it quietly marks the beginning.”
MicroStrategy continues to be a key player in the intersection of traditional equity markets and cryptocurrency exposure, with its stock price largely reflective of bitcoin’s own volatility and market dynamics. The company’s evolving narrative remains closely tied to both its digital asset custody and broader financial market developments.
Investors and analysts will be watching closely as MicroStrategy releases its earnings and as the S&P 500 inclusion decision approaches later this year.
