Bitcoin’s recent price drop might be followed by a significant rebound, according to historical trends observed in previous Octobers. Economist Timothy Peterson highlighted on social media that Bitcoin’s price declines exceeding 5% during October are rare, having only occurred four times in the last decade.
Peterson identified these notable drops in October 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021. In the subsequent week following each decline, Bitcoin demonstrated varied recoveries: a 16% rise in 2017, a 4% uptick in 2018, and a remarkable 21% surge in 2019. The exception was in 2021, when Bitcoin’s value continued to slip by an additional 3% after the initial drop.
October has earned the nickname “Uptober” among crypto enthusiasts due to its historically strong performance. Data from CoinGlass shows that since 2013, October has averaged a return of just over 20%, making it Bitcoin’s second-best month after November, which boasts an average gain exceeding 46%.
Following a steep fall to roughly $102,000 on Friday amid news of U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on China, Bitcoin’s price has begun to recover. At the time this article was published, Bitcoin was trading near $111,700, rebounding from its recent all-time high around $125,100 earlier this week.
If Bitcoin mirrors the strongest October bounce recorded in 2019—a 21% surge from the low—then a similar rise from the recent bottom could bring Bitcoin close to $124,000 within days. This potential recovery aligns with historical patterns but remains subject to market conditions.
Several prominent figures within the Bitcoin community have expressed optimism about the month ahead. Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, reminded followers that the month of October still has three weeks remaining to support a positive price trend. Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, described the recent dip as a probable cycle bottom, pointing to previous market crashes for context.
Other analysts offer longer-term perspectives. One commentator, known as The Bitcoin Libertarian, forecasted significant volatility years down the line, likening future price corrections to sudden crashes from high levels, which would still represent record-breaking market activity.
While the market awaits further developments, historical performance suggests that recovery after sharp October declines is plausible. However, investors should remain attentive to evolving economic factors and geopolitical events that continue to influence cryptocurrency valuations.
