During a recent interview at Token2049 in Singapore, Saad Ahmed, the head of the Asia-Pacific region for Gemini, shared insights on the future of Bitcoin’s notorious four-year cycle. While it’s unlikely that the cycle will replicate its historical pattern exactly, Ahmed asserts that elements of it will persist.
“I think when it comes to the four-year cycle, the reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle,” Ahmed remarked. He explained that the typical patterns of enthusiasm and subsequent corrections are still valid indicators of market behavior. “Ultimately, it stems from people getting really excited and overextending themselves, leading to a crash, followed by a correction towards equilibrium,” he added.
Ahmed noted that the increasing presence of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency sector may stabilize the market, helping it manage volatility more effectively. “You’ll see some of the volatility kind of flag off, but you’ll still see some sorts of cycles as they are ultimately driven by human emotion,” he said. These sentiments highlight a balancing act where institutional involvement could temper sharp price swings.
The discussion surrounding the relevance of the four-year cycle in Bitcoin’s price movements has garnered attention, particularly given recent comments from analytics firm Glassnode. On August 21, they suggested that Bitcoin’s current price trajectory may still align with its historical halving cycles.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has also weighed in on the topic, indicating that October could mark a potential peak for Bitcoin if the historical patterns continue. He stated in July that if the 2020 cycle is followed, a market peak could unfold roughly 550 days after the anticipated halving in April 2024. “We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” Rekt noted.
These perspectives come as Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited significant price movements, recently surging by 11.5% in one week, reaching $123,850, just a hair below its all-time high of $124,100 set on August 14, according to CoinMarketCap. This price surge is indicative of the ongoing interest and volatility within the crypto market.
Looking at future predictions, cryptocurrency expert Matt Hougan from Bitwise has expressed skepticism about Bitcoin strictly adhering to its past cyclical behaviors. Speaking on July 26, he predicted that “2026 is going to be an up year” and expressed optimism for the broader market over the next few years. His remarks suggest a shift in expectations, as many market analysts begin to challenge traditional notions of Bitcoin price cycles.
The start of Q4 on October 1 marks a historically strong period for Bitcoin, which has averaged a return of 79.39% since 2013, according to data from CoinGlass. This season is regarded as a crucial time for potential growth in Bitcoin’s value, and many will be observing its performance closely.
As the Bitcoin landscape evolves with increasing sophistication and institutional engagement, industry experts are left to ponder how these changes will reshape traditional market cycles and investor strategies. While the historical four-year cycle may face challenges, its core principles may very well remain relevant as the cryptocurrency market progresses.
