Five days before the midterm elections, a new round of CNN polling shows Democrats ahead or competitive in four Senate races that could decide who controls the chamber next year, and the most eye-catching number comes from Texas.
Texas: Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%
In Texas, a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office in three decades, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43% among likely voters. CNN says Talarico benefits from deeply negative views of Paxton and from sizable support among Black, Latino and Asian voters, many of whom backed President Donald Trump in 2024.
Talarico has the support of 63% of Latino likely voters, according to the poll, and 64% of likely voters of color overall, including 22% of voters of color who say they voted for Trump two years ago. Paxton is struggling even within his own party: 24% of Republicans view him unfavorably, while just 2% of Democrats see Talarico negatively.
CNN cautioned that Texas is still far from friendly territory for Democrats. The Republican Party remains more popular there than the Democratic Party, and there is no clear leader in the state’s race for governor.
Michigan: El-Sayed opens a lead
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 49% to 42% among likely voters. Around Labor Day, CNN’s polling found no clear leader in that race. El-Sayed now has the backing of 95% of Democratic likely voters, while half of all likely voters now view Rogers unfavorably, up from 42% in early September.
Kansas and Maine: no clear leader
In deep-red Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is at 49% to 45% for Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, a gap CNN describes as no clear leader. Hamilton is drawing about 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, broader crossover support than any other Democrat tested, and most of his backers say they are motivated mainly by opposition to Marshall.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson is at 49% and Republican Sen. Susan Collins is at 45%, again with no clear leader. Collins draws more support from voters who disapprove of Trump (21%) than any of the other Republican candidates tested. Jackson’s supporters are more likely to say they are extremely motivated to vote, 79% to 62%, though motivation among Collins voters has climbed 9 points since September.
What it means for Senate control
To take control of the Senate, Democrats need a net gain of four seats, and three of these four seats are currently held by Republicans. CNN notes the races are not settled: in every state except Maine, at least 1 in 8 likely voters say they could still change their minds, and in Texas and Kansas most of those persuadable voters are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
Source: CNN polling released October 29, 2026.