The cryptocurrency market remains in a cautious state of trading as investors await new catalysts following the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin (BTC) has found itself moving within a narrow range, with its next significant resistance level identified at $118,000, challenging bullish traders to break through this threshold.
Notably, open interest in Bitcoin futures has seen a marked increase, reaching 149,000 BTC, which ends a previous two-month decline. This uptick could indicate renewed capital inflows, potentially leaning towards bearish sentiment, as the three-month annualized premium hovers below 10%.
In contrast, smaller cryptocurrencies have shown impressive momentum, sparking enthusiasm for what may be developing into a robust altcoin season. In the last 24 hours, notable gains have been observed among IMX, NEAR, and HASH, each rising over 10% and standing out as the sole coins from the top 100 to enter the double-digit growth bracket.
Timothy Misir, Head of Research at BRN, has advised traders to maintain a careful approach regarding position sizes. He noted, “Institutional inflows and significant accumulation address activity bolster the bullish case; however, with record options open interest and congestion near $118,000, there are clear pinch points to consider. It’s essential to trade with prudence: monitor position sizes, manage leverage carefully, and use $115,200 as a key guardrail while keeping an eye on $118,000 for breakout cues,” Misir stated in a recent communication.
As for derivatives positioning, AVAX stands out as the only cryptocurrency within the top 20 that has experienced an increase in perpetual futures open interest over the past day. Meanwhile, most other tokens have reported stable to declining open interest, indicating potential capital outflows from futures. Data from analytics firm Glassnode suggests that approximately 5,000 BTC in long positions could be at risk of liquidation if prices dip below $117,000, coupled with a build-up of short positions at elevated price levels.
Several major cryptocurrencies, with exceptions including LINK, DOT, and TRX, have exhibited net selling patterns in the futures market, as reflected in negative cumulative volume deltas over the past 24 hours. This trend raises concerns about a possible sharp decline in altcoins should aversion to risk continue to grow on Wall Street.
Across the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Bitcoin futures open interest surged to 149,000 BTC, halting a two-month downtrend. This rise may signal fresh short positions entering the market, particularly since the annualized three-month premium remains below 10% and appears to be on a downward trajectory. Meanwhile, Ether futures open interest has climbed back above 2 million ETH.
On the Deribit exchange, traders are actively pursuing put options tied to Bitcoin, reflecting ongoing concerns about potential downward price movements. OTC network activity on Paradigm has included a mix of calendar spreads and put writing, further signaling cautious sentiment among traders.
In the altcoin space, the Aster token—associated with its namesake decentralized exchange—has made headlines by surging 33% in just 24 hours, contributing to an impressive 650% increase since its launch earlier in the week. The token drew attention from Binance founder Changpeng Zhao on social media as a competitor to HyperLiquid’s HYPE. With nearly 330,000 wallets engaged ahead of upcoming exchange listings, Aster’s daily trading volume has reached $420 million.
However, the launch of the Aster platform has not been without its challenges. Concerns regarding fund withdrawals prompted a team member to assure users on Discord that their funds were secure. Additionally, some speculations suggest that Aster may simply be a rebranding of Apollox, a long-standing decentralized perpetual exchange.
Regardless of the controversies, Aster has captured the interest of traders and is viewed by some as a promising alternative to HyperLiquid, which boasts a market cap of $18.7 billion compared to Aster’s $1 billion.
