Polymarket’s Dutch Election Bets Reveal How Trader Biases Can Distort Prediction Markets
In the lead-up to the Netherlands’ October 29 parliamentary elections, many participants on Polymarket were firmly convinced that Geert Wilders’ nationalist Party for Freedom (PVV) would secure a decisive victory. Despite shifting polls showing rising support for Rob Jetten’s socially liberal Democrats 66 (D66), the market prices remained largely unchanged, favoring PVV positions. However, the release of initial exit polls triggered a sudden market reversal. Within minutes, the odds for D66 surged dramatically from 5% to nearly 100%, resulting in substantial losses for traders holding long PVV bets. Official projections with 98% of votes counted indicated that both PVV and












