Bitcoin’s escalating price is increasingly putting the cryptocurrency out of reach for typical retail investors, sparking debate about the sustainability of the current bull market cycle beyond its traditional four-year pattern.
According to recent analysis by crypto intelligence firm 10x Research, Bitcoin (BTC) may have become too costly for steady retail buying, which could threaten the anticipated continuation of the ongoing bull market. The company urged caution about relying heavily on historical Bitcoin cycles to predict future movements, emphasizing the uncertainties inherent in such projections.
In a report published Tuesday, 10x Research highlighted the notion of “diminishing returns” in Bitcoin’s price growth. The firm noted that while many interpret this as a sign of the asset maturing, it also calls into question the widely referenced Bitcoin cycle theory. With Bitcoin being a relatively young asset of just 16 years, the company advised against making definitive statistical conclusions based on limited historical data.
Despite popular forecasting tools like the stock-to-flow model, which some analysts have claimed could push Bitcoin’s price to $1 million, 10x Research’s proprietary model suggests a more conservative price peak of around $125,000 by the end of 2024. This projection follows the firm’s accurate identification of the bear market low in October 2022.
This $125,000 target stands in contrast to other industry forecasts. For example, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Kendrick also speculated in early 2024 that BTC could climb to $500,000 by 2028, coinciding with the conclusion of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s potential second term. Such optimistic outlooks underscore the wide range of perspectives present within the crypto community.
Data from blockchain analytics provider Nansen also reveals growing interest in Bitcoin from what are termed “smart money” traders—market participants believed to have superior information or insight. On Binance’s blockchain, Bitcoin native token BTCB ranked as the 11th most held asset by these traders, trailing some high-risk memecoins like PUMP and PEPE.
Although Bitcoin’s high price may be challenging for everyday investors, it continues to attract sustained attention from influential market players. The dynamics of large liquidations, such as the recent $19 billion sell-off, could also create new entry points for buyers, according to some analysts.
In summary, while Bitcoin’s soaring valuation may restrict participation from smaller retail investors, institutional and “smart money” activity keeps market interest alive. However, the validity of relying solely on past cycle models remains a topic of debate among experts, underscoring ongoing uncertainties in Bitcoin’s price trajectory and the broader crypto market’s evolution.
