Bitcoin (BTC) entered November with a decline, retreating to around $107,000 after erasing gains made over the weekend. The cryptocurrency faces renewed selling pressure as traders prepare for potential support tests in the near term.
After a strong rally in October that saw Bitcoin reach all-time highs above $126,000, the asset has struggled to sustain momentum. The recent downturn has prompted caution among market participants, with some analysts suggesting that BTC could be range-bound for the foreseeable future.
Key support levels under scrutiny
Traders have identified critical support zones near the $101,000 to $106,000 range, where the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) lies. This level previously acted as a stable base during October’s price correction and remains a focal point for potential price rebounds.
Market expert CrypNuevo noted that this support is “very solid” and could trigger a strong bounce if tested again. However, he also described the upcoming week as potentially one of the most challenging of the fourth quarter, signaling careful navigation for traders.
Another notable observation comes from Daan Crypto Trades, who emphasized the significance of exchange order-book liquidity. Recent shifts showed that Bitcoin broke below a short-term liquidity cluster at approximately $108,500, with further liquidity levels clustered near $112,000. Lower price points between $105,000 and $106,000 could serve as additional support, while resistance may emerge near $117,000.
Market sentiment and outlook
The broader sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains subdued. Despite November historically being a strong month for Bitcoin, this year’s activity reveals a decline of roughly 2%, weakening bullish hopes after the worst October performance since 2018.
Indicators illustrate this cautious mood. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits in “fear” territory, reflecting trader anxiety. Prediction markets such as Polymarket assign just a 33% chance for BTC/USD to close November above $120,000, while the likelihood of surpassing $115,000 is estimated at around 60%.
Research from Santiment highlights that dips to $107,000 have triggered an increase in bearish price forecasts, many anticipating a drop below $100,000. Notably, historical data suggests that market bottoms often occur when pessimism peaks, hinting at the potential for a relief rally amid current fears.
Macro factors influencing crypto’s trajectory
While hopes for a US-China trade deal buoy global stock markets, Bitcoin has yet to join the rally. Renewed concerns over Federal Reserve interest rate policies and rate-cut timelines have heightened market uncertainty, diminishing institutional demand for Bitcoin—which recently fell to a seven-month low relative to fresh BTC supply.
Retail investors also appear to be pulling back, with on-chain metrics showing decreased network activity around the $110,000 price level. This supports the view that sustaining higher Bitcoin prices remains challenging in the short term.
As the week progresses, analysts will closely monitor how Bitcoin’s price responds to liquidity tests and broader macroeconomic cues, which will likely shape the path for the remainder of the fourth quarter.
