Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be finding a foothold as gold, its traditional safe-haven counterpart, experiences a notable pullback from record highs. Analysts monitoring the markets suggest that gold’s recent cooling may open the door for a resurgence in Bitcoin’s price.
Gold reached an unprecedented high near $4,380 per ounce last week but has since declined by approximately 2.9%. Despite the recent dip, the precious metal remains significantly up, boasting gains exceeding 62% year-to-date. The daily relative strength index (RSI) for gold has hovered above 70 over the past month, signaling overbought conditions and raising the potential for profit-taking.
During gold’s correction, Bitcoin has rebounded roughly 4%, recovering from a four-month low close to $103,535. Bitcoin’s RSI currently sits at its lowest level since April, a pattern that historically indicates a potential market bottom and often precedes substantial price appreciation. This divergence between Bitcoin and gold prices has led several market observers to interpret the trend as an early sign of Bitcoin stabilizing after recent volatility.
Among those highlighting this dynamic is analyst Pat, who describes Bitcoin’s current price action as a “generational bottom.” He points to historical data showing the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen to levels during previous years—specifically 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022—that typically coincide with Bitcoin initiating major upward rallies. In past instances, these rallies ranged between 100% and 600%. As of mid-October, the ratio dipped below –2.5, implying Bitcoin may be undervalued relative to gold following the metal’s record surge, potentially setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next bullish phase.
Analyst Alex Wacy notes parallels between the current gold pullback and the 2020 peak, which was followed by a local bottom for Bitcoin. While gold’s correction could signal an impending Bitcoin rally, the market continues to assess if a similar trend will unfold this time around.
Contrasting some bearish sentiment on gold, HSBC maintains a bullish perspective, projecting that gold prices could reach as high as $5,000 per ounce by 2026. The bank’s outlook is grounded in ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and prospects for a weaker U.S. dollar. HSBC emphasizes that this rally is expected to be driven predominantly by long-term investors seeking stability, rather than short-term speculative buying. The metal’s pattern of corrections amid a larger upward trend suggests sustained confidence, which HSBC believes will persist over the coming years.
On Bitcoin’s future trajectory, JPMorgan analysts remain optimistic, forecasting a potential price of $165,000 by 2025. They argue Bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold, reinforcing expectations of substantial upside. Similarly, analyst Charles Edwards points out that if Bitcoin decisively breaks above $120,000, it could accelerate toward $150,000 swiftly.
While these analyses provide insight into possible market directions, it is important to remember that all investments carry inherent risks. Market participants are advised to perform independent research and exercise caution when making financial decisions.
