Bitcoin (BTC) is currently consolidating above the critical support level of $115,000, as market participants prepare for the upcoming interest rate decision from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) set for Wednesday. The cryptocurrency must overcome immediate resistance between $117,000 and $118,000 to trigger a significant bullish momentum on higher time frames.
Recent analysis from crypto trader Jelle highlights that Bitcoin’s weekly stochastic relative strength index (RSI) has registered its ninth bullish signal this cycle. Historically, such occurrences have led to an average price increase of approximately 35%, which could potentially elevate Bitcoin’s price to between $155,000 and $200,000 if trends continue. The current market mood appears cautiously optimistic, fueled by these technical indicators.
Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson offers a differing perspective, cautioning against relying solely on technical analysis. However, he suggests that historical price patterns provide a useful framework for predicting future movements. Peterson’s analysis indicates that, under current market conditions, Bitcoin may reach the $200,000 mark within a roughly 170-day time frame, presenting an outcome with promising odds.
Despite the optimistic predictions, short-term market dynamics are colored by uncertainty. Analyst Skew notes that there is a significant concentration of new ask-bid liquidity around the $116,000 level, which he terms the “consensus trade” leading up to the FOMC decision. This setup presents a potential risk, as it may not represent genuine market positioning but rather market maker manipulation amid existing supply routes.
The crypto landscape currently exhibits a split sentiment among traders regarding Bitcoin’s long-term potential. While some anticipate up to three interest rate cuts later this year, data from CryptoQuant reveals that most bullish indicators are tilting bearish, suggesting a deceleration in bullish momentum. Nevertheless, some traders contend that the macroeconomic environment remains supportive for Bitcoin, with the dollar index approaching its 15-year support level and stocks showing resilience—evident in a 12% rise in the S&P 500 to new yearly highs and a 40% increase in gold prices in 2025 after a prolonged period of stagnation.
Analyst RookieXBT observes that risk assets like Bitcoin could reap benefits from this liquidity growth and macroeconomic expansion. Adding to the positive outlook, trader Darkfost points out that short-term holder whales are witnessing profits after defending the crucial $108,000 to $109,000 range earlier this month. Historical defenses in similar price zones have often presaged bullish rallies, a pattern seen during March and April of 2025.
As Bitcoin hovers just 8% below its all-time high, the market stands at a pivotal juncture. The implications of the forthcoming FOMC decision are critical as traders wait to see whether the latest RSI signals can catalyze another rally or if macroeconomic challenges will limit upside potential. Investors are advised to remain cautious and to perform thorough research when navigating this volatile market.
This article does not constitute investment advice. All trading and investment decisions carry risk, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own investigations before proceeding.
