Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) continued their downward trajectory on Friday, as apprehension stemming from geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties weighed heavily on the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin dropped to approximately $106,400, marking a 2% loss over the day, while Ethereum slipped 3.2% to near $3,830.
The crypto sector extended its losing streak to four days, reflecting investors’ cautious stance amid increasing tensions and unresolved domestic challenges. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown and complex global developments, including diplomatic engagements related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have contributed to subdued market sentiment.
Expert Analysis on Bitcoin’s Outlook
John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn and former Managing Director at Barclays, expressed a bearish outlook for Bitcoin in the near term. He stated, “The recent bull rally appears complete after a five-wave advance. We anticipate an extended bear market that could persist through at least late 2026.” Glover noted that although intermittent rallies toward $124,000 or slightly beyond are possible, the general trend is expected to decline, potentially seeing Bitcoin prices slide to levels between $70,000 and $80,000 or lower as the bear market unfolds.
Market Capitalization and Altcoin Performance
Friday’s sell-off impacted a range of cryptocurrencies. Binance Coin (BNB) declined by 7% to $1,074, Solana (SOL) decreased 3% to $183, and Ripple’s XRP fell 2.8% to $2.29. Among smaller tokens, notable losses included AAVE, down nearly 13% to $203; ASTER, down 12% to $1.13; and Flare (FLR), which lost 8.5% of its value to hit $0.06.
In contrast, Ethena (ENA) registered a 9% gain, reaching $0.43, standing out as the day’s top performer according to CoinGecko data. Overall, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization contracted by approximately 1.5%, settling around $3.70 trillion. Bitcoin’s market dominance remained substantial at 57.4%, while Ethereum’s share accounted for 12.4%.
Liquidations and ETF Withdrawals
Crypto markets experienced nearly $972 million in liquidations within the past 24 hours, with long positions contributing roughly $682 million and short positions around $286 million, based on Coinglass statistics. Bitcoin led liquidations with close to $345 million, followed by Ethereum at about $231 million, and altcoins combined accounted for approximately $85 million.
Investor withdrawals from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were significant during Thursday, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing $536 million in outflows for the second day running, bringing the total withdrawal over two days to roughly $637 million. Ethereum ETFs also recorded nearly $57 million in outflows, according to SoSoValue analyses.
Influence of Geopolitical and Economic Factors
Market participants remain attentive to geopolitical developments, including discussions between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy regarding support strategies against Russia, as well as efforts aimed at conflict resolution involving Russian leadership. Concurrently, the ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown persists, with no immediate resolution expected in the Senate.
Looking ahead, the market awaits the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where investors widely anticipate a 25 basis point interest rate cut, with CME Group data indicating a 96% probability of such a decision. These macroeconomic factors continue to influence crypto asset volatility and investor behavior.
David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, summarized the current atmosphere by describing it as “a complex mix of panic selling, triggered stop losses, and selective buying attempts aimed at identifying support levels.” He cautioned that a breakdown beneath major price supports, particularly Bitcoin’s $100,000 threshold, could trigger further downward movement, although a full-scale market crash does not appear imminent.
