Market analysts are signaling a possible short-term decline in Bitcoin’s price to around $104,000, marking what could be a final corrective phase before the cryptocurrency resumes its upward trajectory. This forecast is grounded in historical trading behaviors and key technical support zones observed over recent market cycles.
One pivotal indicator under scrutiny is Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average (SMA), currently positioned near $102,500, as tracked by TradingView. This long-term moving average has historically acted as robust support, having been tested successfully on four occasions since the current bull market began in mid-2023.
Analyst ‘Sykodelic’ highlighted the prominence of a significant liquidity cluster around the $104,000 level, reflecting an area where leverage in the market remains substantial. The analyst pointed out that although the prospect might be unwelcome to many holders, a drop below this threshold appears likely before a reversal. Notably, similar visits to this 50-week SMA had previously coincided with market lows in April 2025 and August 2024, both followed by strong recoveries amid heavily negative sentiment.
Supporting this view, another market observer, ‘Negentropic,’ described the ongoing activity as resembling the final stages of a market correction, suggesting the current profit-taking phase is milder than earlier episodes. The analyst indicated that there is potential for Bitcoin to test values near $102,000, which could precede a substantial trend reversal.
From a fundamentals standpoint, Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, explained that any retracement to around $104,000 would represent a healthy market correction. He noted that despite short-term uncertainties and profit-taking pressures, the underlying market fundamentals and sustained institutional interest remain strong, providing a foundation for a bullish resurgence.
Additional technical analysis from ‘Daan Crypto Trades’ emphasized the significance of the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a key support level throughout the current market cycle. Although periods of price volatility have occurred around this average, Bitcoin has not broken this trend for more than a month, underlining its importance as a stabilizing indicator.
Turning to recent price action, Bitcoin has maintained relative stability around the $108,000 mark — a level which has shifted from support to resistance. Early in the week, BTC briefly rallied to approximately $113,000 but quickly retreated, falling back to around $107,000 before settling near the $108,000 resistance zone. This price range is currently seeing consolidation, suggesting the market is digesting recent moves while positioning itself for the next phase.
In summary, while market participants await potential testing of the $104,000 range, observers agree this movement would likely serve as a corrective step within a broader bullish framework supported by strong technical and institutional signals.
