Amid a fluctuating cryptocurrency market, some analysts are cautioning Bitcoin investors about the potential for a significant price correction. In a recent interview, renowned crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen suggested that Bitcoin could see a drawdown of up to 70% in the next bear market.
Cowen noted that historical patterns indicate substantial declines often occur following soaring price rallies. He pointed to earlier cycles where Bitcoin experienced sharp downturns of 94%, 87%, and approximately 77%. “Does it have to happen? No, but history would at least caution us to at least believe that it might,” Cowen stated, implying the need for caution among investors.
The current price of Bitcoin stands at $117,010, having gained 3.41% over the past month and 88.35% over the last year, according to CoinMarketCap. However, with other experts projecting aggressive targets for Bitcoin, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes’s expectation of a price reaching as high as $250,000 by the end of this year, a 70% correction would take Bitcoin’s value down to approximately $75,000.
Cowen emphasized the importance of being prepared for volatility, especially if the market begins to climb in the fourth quarter of this year. “If we start screaming higher in Q4, for me, it’ll just be simple: this time’s not different, I’ll just take profits back to stables,” he explained. He also mentioned he might await until mid-2026 to re-enter the market for potential accumulations.
Market sentiment seems divided, with some analysts suggesting that a bear market is still on the horizon, while others believe it might be further away. This divergence in opinion was echoed by noted figures in the cryptocurrency space. For instance, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan expressed confidence that 2026 will be a fruitful year for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg predicted a greater than 50% chance of Bitcoin rising to the $140,000 to $150,000 range before a possible retracement next year.
In addition to speculations on Bitcoin, Cowen also commented on the performance of Ethereum (ETH) relative to Bitcoin. He anticipates that Ethereum will underperform Bitcoin in the short term, though he believes it will eventually show stronger gains as the cycle progresses. “I expect weakness through the month of October for ETH,” he noted, while indicating that the ETH/BTC ratio, which reflects Ethereum’s strength against Bitcoin, has seen an increase of 8.56% over the past month, as reported by TradingView.
Cowen’s predictions serve as a reminder for investors in the crypto space to remain vigilant and strategic in their approach, given the inherent unpredictability of the market. As many traders are eager for Bitcoin’s next major rally, they should also stay mentally prepared for the possibility of a sudden peak that can occur without warning.
With contrasting takes on Bitcoin’s trajectory, the wider crypto community continues to engage in discussions about market behavior and long-term potential. As the year progresses, investors are encouraged to weigh diverse analyses and consider the lessons of history in their trading strategies.
