Recent analysis indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) may have a significant chance—approximately 70%—of reaching new all-time highs within the next two weeks. The outlook stems from a combination of market conditions, ongoing institutional interest, and the impact of recent financial trends.
According to Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., the current market dynamics are in a balanced state, serving as a potential precursor for an upward trend. The Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-Scores for both 155-day and 365-day groups are hovering around zero. This positioning suggests that Bitcoin is neither excessively valued nor undervalued, which is typically a favorable indication for future price movements.
As Bitcoin trades slightly above the STH realized price, analysts suggest a consolidation phase lasting between one to two weeks might take place prior to a significant breakout. “Uptober incoming,” Adler Jr. stated, hinting at the historically favorable conditions surrounding Bitcoin during the month of October.
Data from crypto derivatives markets further supports the bullish sentiment. Bitcoin futures are demonstrating a consistent premium over spot prices, with the short-term (seven-day) basis outpacing the longer-term (30-day) basis—a structure often associated with positive market trends. However, Adler Jr. did note minor overheating signs prior to the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which might indicate some late-stage positioning among traders.
Despite potential warning signs, the prevailing market view remains optimistic. Adler Jr. commented that there is a strong likelihood of seeing either a gradual ascent or sideways consolidation over the upcoming fortnight. Meanwhile, institutional investment has received a substantial boost, as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reported an impressive $2.8 billion in net inflows since early September, markedly shifting the market toward a positive trend.
This influx of institutional funds, coupled with enhancing technical indicators, has traders poised for what could be a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s trajectory. The cryptocurrency has climbed by 8.5% in October alone, rising from $107,000 to reach $117,800 just ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
As Bitcoin approaches these levels, the presence of internal liquidity suggests that a slight pullback might occur before the market progresses further. Historically, this month has been viewed as bearish for Bitcoin, adding to the complexity of the current landscape.
Despite the uncertain monthly tendencies, Bitcoin’s overall behavior in 2025 has defied many market anticipations concerning retracements. Previously, the asset moved seamlessly between external liquidity zones without lingering at internal levels. This pattern was notable in July, when Bitcoin bypassed liquidity near $105,000, ascending quickly following a daily breakout.
A similar situation may be on the horizon. If Bitcoin can secure a daily close above $117,500, it could confirm another breakout and measurably lower the chances of a retreat below $114,000. This outcome would align well with Adler Jr.’s forecast of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs in the near future.
In summary, while a short-term retest of order blocks in the $114,000 to $113,000 range remains possible, the improving macroeconomic landscape and continued ETF inflows may prompt buyers to engage sooner. The interplay between underlying liquidity issues and bullish momentum is likely to determine whether Bitcoin pauses for adjustment or sets its course directly towards $124,000.
This article does not provide financial advice. Investors are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
